Demographic and health impact of HIV/AIDS: A statistical analysis using HIV/AIDS data of sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The AIDS epidemic becomes more complex every year. The global HIV/AlDS epidemic killed more than 3.1 million people in 2004 and 2.9 million people in 2006 and an estimated 4.3 million people acquired the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-bringing to 39.5 million the number of people living with the virus around the world. HIV/AIDS is now the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa, and the fourth main killer globally. At present seven Sub-Saharan countries, all in Southern Africa-Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe have an adult HIV prevalence rate of 18 per cent or more, with at least one in five adults between 15 and 49 years infected. Globally, there were an estimated 17.3 million women living with HIV in 2005-three fourth (or 13.2 million) were living in sub-Saharan Africa. Today, more than 13 million children currently under the age of 15 years have lost one or both parents to AIDS,. most in sub-Saharan Africa. In Botswana, for instance, over 34 per cent of adults are infected with HIV and a child born there in 2003 could expect to live just 39 years, down from 65 years in 1990. Life, expectancy ut birth in 2003 in sub-Saharan Africa was 46 years, very low compared to 70 years of Latin America and Caribbean. In the present study, we have fitted Log linear and Log quadratic curves to the HIV/AlDS data. We, have obtained multistage regression model to know the sequential change in the rate of HIV spread. To asses the demographic and health impact of HIV/AIDS, we have also obtained multiple regression model of the number of people living with HIV (0-49 years) on some selected independent set of variables, considering the data during the year 2003 and 2005 for 3 6 sub-Saharan countries.